Discover why Sofia is emerging as a lucrative market for short-term rentals. Our Q1 2026 analysis reveals that over 34% of listed properties show 100% occupancy, presenting significant opportunities for data-driven hosts
Introduction: Sofia's Untapped Rental Market
Sofia, Bulgaria's vibrant capital, has been gaining attention from travelers seeking authentic Eastern European experiences. But for entrepreneurs and property owners, the real story lies deeper - in the data.
After analyzing over 3,700 Airbnb listings across Sofia during the first quarter of 2026, we've uncovered something remarkable: the majority of these properties show patterns suggesting they're not actively generating revenue. This might sound discouraging at first, but for savvy investors and hosts, it represents a significant opportunity.
In this first installment of our data-driven market analysis series, we'll explore:
- Where Airbnb properties are concentrated in Sofia
- What we mean by "ghost properties" and why they matter
- How to identify truly active, profitable listings
- Why Sofia appears poised for growth in the short-term rental market
Understanding the Market Landscape
Before diving into our findings, it's important to understand what we're measuring. Our analysis focuses on Q1 2026 data - January through March - and examines two critical metrics:
- Occupancy Rates: How many nights per month were properties actually booked?
- Review Activity: How many guests left reviews, indicating actual bookings and stays?
These aren't arbitrary metrics. In the Airbnb ecosystem, a property's performance is directly tied to occupancy and guest engagement. A property with minimal occupancy isn't just underperforming - it's real estate that could potentially generate revenue in an emerging market.
Current Distribution of Sofia's Airbnb Properties
Let's first dive into the map of the town and see how the properties are distributed.
Note: The map is interactive and you can zoom in or zoom out.
We can easily see how properties are heavily concentrated in Sofia's central and south administrative regions (excluding the most outer regions like Витоша, Панчарево, Кремиковци and Нови Искър especially). This clustering creates both opportunities and challenges. The concentration in the center is kind of expected - as for all other capitals across the world. However, the fact that the south parth have more density in terms of apartments/rooms for short-term rental than the north parth of the city is interesting. We will leave the detailed analysis "south vs north" for another time.
The "Ghost Properties" Phenomenon
One of our most striking findings concerns properties with 100% occupancy rates. In the hospitality industry, true 100% occupancy is virtually impossible. Properties need maintenance days, cleaning time, and there's always natural turnover between guests.
When we see 100% occupancy, it typically indicates one of several scenarios:
- The property is permanently blocked (not available for booking) - In our data collection we cannot make the difference between property being blocked or occupied/rented out. We are seeing what everyone sees as user on the website.
- The host has stopped actively managing the listing but hasn't removed it
- The host accepts reservations only for certain days throughout the month, leaving other days blocked
Note: Someone might argue that the property might have been booked on another platform, like booking.com, but then that would mean that the apartment was occupied and revenue was generated.
In Q1 2026, we found that 1275 (or 34.29%) of Sofia's Airbnb listings show 100% occupancy - something that will be questioned by every experienced host. Those rentals are what we refer to as "ghost properties". But this on it's own is no enough as a metric/check. We should filter down even more
When we apply more refined filters:
- focusing on neighborhoods (not administrative regions!) with meaningful market presence (at least 5 properties) and
- properties showing review activity consistent with active hosting (6 or more reviews in Q1, indicating approximately 2 bookings/guests per month)
we see a different picture. From 3721 properties we are down to only to 547. Only 14.7% of Sofia's properties appear to meet these criteria for consistent, active hosting.
This suggests that approximately 85.3% of listed properties are either:
- Blocked for extended periods
- Inactive or rarely managed
- Taking bookings only sporadically
- Listed on alternative platforms and not prioritizing Airbnb
- Operated part-time by hosts with other primary income sources
- Having less bookings, but for longer periods of between 2 weeks and 1 month
- Requiring minimum night period of 7 days or more
For the pre-last point those are rare cases and will be very small percentage, while the latest bullet point is usually for villas or huge apartments that can host groups of people from 6 and more, instead of 1 or 2 couples.
Someone also might argue that the number of reviews is not a good indicator or filter, since not all guests are leaving one. Once again, experienced hosts do know that Airbnb really care about reviews and that reviews are showing up only when both sides (host and guest) wrote one. For platforms like booking.com, it is different though - but this is not our focus here, we focus mainly on the airbnb platform.
Listings That Are Actually Working
Once we apply the filters from above and check the map again, we see very different picture. The density is not that high anymore.
The Filtered View: This map shows only the properties that passed our filters: neighborhoods with at least 5 listings + recent guest activity. Notice the dramatic difference from the map above.
This is crucial information. It means that the truly competitive segment - properties actively generating revenue - is considerably smaller than raw listing counts suggest.
Note: While the first map was using the administrative regions of Sofia, in this case we have the districts/neighborhoods to have mode detailed view.
What This Means for the Sofia Market
The pattern of inactive listings isn't a market failure - it appears to represent a significant opportunity for hosts who approach the market strategically.
1. Lower Competition Among Active Hosts
While Sofia appears crowded when looking at total listings, the truly active, revenue-generating segment is considerably smaller. With only about 1 in 7 properties actively hosting, this suggests:
- Potentially less price pressure among properties that are well-maintained and consistently available
- Guest demand that may not be fully captured by the current active host pool
- A more realistic competitive landscape for new, professionally-managed properties
2. Opportunity to Differentiate
A property that is well-maintained, properly marketed, and consistently available appears to have a meaningful advantage in a market where many listings are inactive. In a sea of unavailable or unreliable listings, reliable properties stand out.
3. Potential for Market Growth
The large number of inactive properties could represent unfulfilled market potential. As Sofia's tourism develops and the city attracts more international visitors, either dormant listings may activate - or their real estate could be managed more effectively. Either way, the market appears far from saturation.
4. Data-Driven Decision Making
Most hosts operate based on limited information. Access to actual market data - occupancy patterns, neighborhood performance, guest feedback drivers - appears to offer a meaningful competitive advantage for hosts willing to make data-informed decisions about pricing, positioning, and management.
A Series of Insights Ahead
This post is just the beginning. We're launching a series of deep-dive analyses where each installment builds on the last, progressively revealing why Sofia is an exceptional market for short-term rentals. In the next weeks we will talk about the prices through Q1, reviews and guest sentiment and other topics.
Get Deeper Insights
Our detailed market reports provide property-by-property breakdowns with occupancy rates, pricing and guest review insights - exactly the data you need to make confident decisions in Sofia's market.
Whether you're evaluating a specific property or managing an existing portfolio, data-driven insights give you a competitive edge.
Coming soon: Reports on suburb and city levels.
All data in this analysis is sourced from public Airbnb listings as of Q1 2026. This article is for informational purposes.